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The Euro moves lower after the FOMC Signals 3 Rate Cuts in 2017

The Euro moves lower after the FOMC Signals 3 Rate Cuts in 2017
by, David Frank, Economist

Points to consider with this FOMC article:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points (BPS) to a range of 0.50 to 0.75 percent.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep the terminal rate around 2.75 to three percent.

Just a short while ago, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the United States Federal Reserve Board (Fed) followed a similar rate hake path to 2015 when Janet Yellen and Co. voted unanimously to raise the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points in the last policy meeting of that year. The Dollar saw a slight increase, especially against the euro.

More importantly, as the markets had priced this rate hike in and it was of no surprise, the Federal Reserve pushed up its forward guidance, or rate dot-plot. The Fed will now seek to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate three times in the New Year (2017). Their longer-run dot-plot was kept the same projecting a terminal rate of around 2.75 percent to three percent. The policy makers of the central bank did not make any meaningful changes to their inflation or economic growth forecasts. The gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for 2017 were marginally revised upward to reflect an economic rate of growth of 2.1 percent. The September growth projection was at a two percent expansion.

Despite the small pickup with the forward guidance, the Fed members warned of “market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.” This means the Federal Reserve is likely to revert back to a more wait-and-see approach at the next monetary policy announcement to be held on February 1. The following new Fed voting members will be slated to vote, at the FOMC, at that time in 2017: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplanand Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

At 1940 GMT time, after the news of the FOMC vote crossed the wires, the Dow Jones was down a little over 65 points and the S& 500 was down about eight points in a choppy trading session. The US Dollar was trading up against the euro which was trading at 1.0582.

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The Euro moves lower after the FOMC Signals 3 Rate Cuts in 2017

The Euro moves lower after the FOMC Signals 3 Rate Cuts in 2017
by, David Frank, Economist

Points to consider with this FOMC article:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points (BPS) to a range of 0.50 to 0.75 percent.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep the terminal rate around 2.75 to three percent.

Just a short while ago, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the United States Federal Reserve Board (Fed) followed a similar rate hake path to 2015 when Janet Yellen and Co. voted unanimously to raise the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points in the last policy meeting of that year. The Dollar saw a slight increase, especially against the euro.

More importantly, as the markets had priced this rate hike in and it was of no surprise, the Federal Reserve pushed up its forward guidance, or rate dot-plot. The Fed will now seek to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate three times in the New Year (2017). Their longer-run dot-plot was kept the same projecting a terminal rate of around 2.75 percent to three percent. The policy makers of the central bank did not make any meaningful changes to their inflation or economic growth forecasts. The gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for 2017 were marginally revised upward to reflect an economic rate of growth of 2.1 percent. The September growth projection was at a two percent expansion.

Despite the small pickup with the forward guidance, the Fed members warned of “market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.” This means the Federal Reserve is likely to revert back to a more wait-and-see approach at the next monetary policy announcement to be held on February 1. The following new Fed voting members will be slated to vote, at the FOMC, at that time in 2017: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplanand Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

At 1940 GMT time, after the news of the FOMC vote crossed the wires, the Dow Jones was down a little over 65 points and the S& 500 was down about eight points in a choppy trading session. The US Dollar was trading up against the euro which was trading at 1.0582.

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Live Trading Webinar 14th December 2016 $240 Profit from a Simple Binary Trading Method Part 2

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Live Trading Webinar 14th December 2016 $240 Profit from a Simple Binary Trading Method Part 1

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A Fed Rate Hike does not mean US Dollar Gains

A Fed Rate Hike does not mean US Dollar Gains
by, David Frank, Economist

The EUR/USD Forex market has been volatile over the last several trading days. Last week, on Monday, the euro hit a low of 1.0505 in Asian trade before hitting a high of 1.0872 in New York trading hours. Then the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised with even more liquidity and the euro lost even more ground, closing the week at 1.0554.

To be fair to the ECB, it was highly unlikely that ECB President Mario Draghi or his merry band of policy makers were going to be able to meet everyone’s needs or wants. However, the central bank came pretty close. The markets wanted an additional six months of quantitative easing or €480 billion of asset purchases at €80 billion a month. They got €540 billion more with a nine month extension at €60 billion per month.

The ECB was careful to point out that this reduced pace of bond purchases does mean they are “tapering.” Should the outlook become less favorable or if financial conditions become inconsistent with progress as far as meeting their inflation target, the ECB could adjust this program once again for size and duration.

ECB Changes Euro Bond Buying Requirements

Also the ECB announced they would start buying assets with yields below the deposit threshold of -0.4 percent. They would also buy bonds with a yield to maturity (YTM) as low as one year. Previous they would only go as low as a two year YTM. This is an important adjustment to their implementation of QE. This will also take buying pressure off the long-end of the yield curve. Investors will no longer need to front-run actions by the ECB. This will also allow the central bank to drive short-term rates even lower. In the context of a rising yield environment, a steeper core of sovereign yield curves will support Forex markets like the EUR/JPY but hurt the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP.

While the recent ECB decisions will shape the common currency of the next several weeks, Forex traders need to watch developments with two other lines of news. First is Italy, a new prime minister will be appointed soon as their foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, was given a mandate to form a new government. Parliamentary approval should be granted on Wednesday.

Another piece of news is Wednesday’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision and announcement. This is the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year and the hawkish views are pointing to a Fed funds rate hike of at least 25 basis points. This could prop up the US Dollar rally even more.

EUR/USD Chart

The EUR/USD Forex market, could already be predisposed for lower prices but the FOMC monetary policy meeting could only bring about this result if they steepen the rate hike curve into the New Year. This is a difficult scenario to grasp as the Fed called for only two rate hikes in 2017 and markets are pricing in two hikes for June and December.

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A Fed Rate Hike does not mean US Dollar Gains

A Fed Rate Hike does not mean US Dollar Gains
by, David Frank, Economist

The EUR/USD Forex market has been volatile over the last several trading days. Last week, on Monday, the euro hit a low of 1.0505 in Asian trade before hitting a high of 1.0872 in New York trading hours. Then the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised with even more liquidity and the euro lost even more ground, closing the week at 1.0554.

To be fair to the ECB, it was highly unlikely that ECB President Mario Draghi or his merry band of policy makers were going to be able to meet everyone’s needs or wants. However, the central bank came pretty close. The markets wanted an additional six months of quantitative easing or €480 billion of asset purchases at €80 billion a month. They got €540 billion more with a nine month extension at €60 billion per month.

The ECB was careful to point out that this reduced pace of bond purchases does mean they are “tapering.” Should the outlook become less favorable or if financial conditions become inconsistent with progress as far as meeting their inflation target, the ECB could adjust this program once again for size and duration.

ECB Changes Euro Bond Buying Requirements

Also the ECB announced they would start buying assets with yields below the deposit threshold of -0.4 percent. They would also buy bonds with a yield to maturity (YTM) as low as one year. Previous they would only go as low as a two year YTM. This is an important adjustment to their implementation of QE. This will also take buying pressure off the long-end of the yield curve. Investors will no longer need to front-run actions by the ECB. This will also allow the central bank to drive short-term rates even lower. In the context of a rising yield environment, a steeper core of sovereign yield curves will support Forex markets like the EUR/JPY but hurt the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP.

While the recent ECB decisions will shape the common currency of the next several weeks, Forex traders need to watch developments with two other lines of news. First is Italy, a new prime minister will be appointed soon as their foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, was given a mandate to form a new government. Parliamentary approval should be granted on Wednesday.

Another piece of news is Wednesday’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision and announcement. This is the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year and the hawkish views are pointing to a Fed funds rate hike of at least 25 basis points. This could prop up the US Dollar rally even more.

EUR/USD Chart

The EUR/USD Forex market, could already be predisposed for lower prices but the FOMC monetary policy meeting could only bring about this result if they steepen the rate hike curve into the New Year. This is a difficult scenario to grasp as the Fed called for only two rate hikes in 2017 and markets are pricing in two hikes for June and December.

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Live Trading Webinar 12th December 2016 $240 Profit with Simple Strategy

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$170 Profit in under 30 minutes - Live Trades with Ben Newman

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$170 Profit in 15 minutes - Live Trades with Ben Newman

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Bullish Live Trades - Ben Newman - USD/JPY 7th December 2016

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Bullish Live Trades - Ben Newman - GBP/AUD 7th December 2016

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Bullish Live Trades - Ben Newman - AUD/CAD 7th December 2016

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Bullish Live Trades - Ben Newman - EUR/AUD 7th December 2016

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Bullish Trading Webinar 29th November 2016 15:00GMT

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Chris Lewis Technical Analysis Series Part 1

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OPEC Pushes the Canadian Dollar Higher

OPEC Pushes the Canadian Dollar Higher

by, David Frank, Economist

The GBP/CAD Forex market appeared to shrug off the oil rally after OPEC reached a deal to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. The USD/CAD Forex market also shrugged the deal off.

When the deal crossed the wires, yesterday afternoon, crude oil rocketed by over eight percent and normally we would have expected the Canadian Dollar to have responded robustly. Usually the Loonie tracks oil prices. However, bother the USD/CAD and GBP/CAD Forex markets were borderline in the red all day.

What is of more importance for the Canadian Dollar is the massive rally with the US Dollar which is tracked by the British Pound and rising yield rates in both the United Kingdom and the United States seem to be at fault. These factors helped to neutralize the Canadian currency. However the CAD is stronger elsewhere and could still find some broad base strength as the price of oil is moving higher.

Oil ministers of the 14 member cartel more formally known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC concluded their meeting in Vienna with an announcement to cap oil supply. This was the cartel’s first production cut since 2008 and will see them reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day. This was less than what market watchers wanted, at 1.4 million barrel reduction, but countries like Russia have also agreed to cut production by 300,000 barrels per day.

The cut was agreed unanimously by all cartel members and even got the support of Russia. We are still waiting to see if other non-OPEC members will get onboard. The biggest oil producer, in the cartel, took the larges cut by agreeing to pair production by some 486,000 barrels per day.

After the deal was announced the contract price of Brent WTI Crude jumped to nearly $50 per barrel. This was not the robust response that should have happened. The reaction has been stronger on front end of the Brent crude curve thus narrowing the costs by only two percent on the one year horizon. In other words, this cut in production is a mere drop in the bucket as there is a global supply glut still in place and soft demand for oil.

There is also a lack of investor confidence in the longevity of this OPEC deal or any expectation that it will curtail US shale producers. This would only partially offset the output cut. However, the price of oil should go up in 2017. The upswing in the price of oil should be moderate as we enter into 2017.

Fallout should be minimal as well as oil prices should reach on average of $52-53 per barrel next year. For the economy in the United States, that is a sweet spot as it is a high enough price to spur investment into shale oil production. However, not large enough to reduce consumer purchasing power. The biggest losers from this OPEC deal will be countries with lower economic
growth. Countries like Japan and Europe and other oil importing regions of the world with slow growth economies will be effected more as time passes.

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OPEC Pushes the Canadian Dollar Higher

OPEC Pushes the Canadian Dollar Higher

by, David Frank, Economist

The GBP/CAD Forex market appeared to shrug off the oil rally after OPEC reached a deal to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. The USD/CAD Forex market also shrugged the deal off.

When the deal crossed the wires, yesterday afternoon, crude oil rocketed by over eight percent and normally we would have expected the Canadian Dollar to have responded robustly. Usually the Loonie tracks oil prices. However, bother the USD/CAD and GBP/CAD Forex markets were borderline in the red all day.

What is of more importance for the Canadian Dollar is the massive rally with the US Dollar which is tracked by the British Pound and rising yield rates in both the United Kingdom and the United States seem to be at fault. These factors helped to neutralize the Canadian currency. However the CAD is stronger elsewhere and could still find some broad base strength as the price of oil is moving higher.

Oil ministers of the 14 member cartel more formally known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC concluded their meeting in Vienna with an announcement to cap oil supply. This was the cartel’s first production cut since 2008 and will see them reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day. This was less than what market watchers wanted, at 1.4 million barrel reduction, but countries like Russia have also agreed to cut production by 300,000 barrels per day.

The cut was agreed unanimously by all cartel members and even got the support of Russia. We are still waiting to see if other non-OPEC members will get onboard. The biggest oil producer, in the cartel, took the larges cut by agreeing to pair production by some 486,000 barrels per day.

After the deal was announced the contract price of Brent WTI Crude jumped to nearly $50 per barrel. This was not the robust response that should have happened. The reaction has been stronger on front end of the Brent crude curve thus narrowing the costs by only two percent on the one year horizon. In other words, this cut in production is a mere drop in the bucket as there is a global supply glut still in place and soft demand for oil.

There is also a lack of investor confidence in the longevity of this OPEC deal or any expectation that it will curtail US shale producers. This would only partially offset the output cut. However, the price of oil should go up in 2017. The upswing in the price of oil should be moderate as we enter into 2017.

Fallout should be minimal as well as oil prices should reach on average of $52-53 per barrel next year. For the economy in the United States, that is a sweet spot as it is a high enough price to spur investment into shale oil production. However, not large enough to reduce consumer purchasing power. The biggest losers from this OPEC deal will be countries with lower economic
growth. Countries like Japan and Europe and other oil importing regions of the world with slow growth economies will be effected more as time passes.

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